Missouri State vs New Mexico State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-04 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-04 11:01 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Missouri State / +2.5 / -110 / 55% / Home advantage boosts Missouri State’s cover probability, with simulation showing 52% cover rate against a narrowing line.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / 140.5 / -110 / 52% / Both teams’ tempos and efficiencies suggest a combined average of 141 points, favoring the over despite moderate defensive ratings.

💰 Best Bet #3 New Mexico State / -140 / 52% / Superior offensive efficiency gives New Mexico State the edge in win probability, even on the road.

Missouri State vs New Mexico State on 2026-01-04

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Missouri State 45% / New Mexico State 55%

💰 Money Distribution

Missouri State 40% / New Mexico State 60%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at New Mexico State -3 but moved to -2.5 with balanced action, indicating some sharp support for the home underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Missouri State spread due to home-field value and reverse line movement against public favoritism toward the Aggies.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Missouri State | 48.2% |
| Win % for New Mexico State | 49.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Missouri State | 52.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.5% / Under: 48.5% |
| Average Total Points | 141.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20.1, 22.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward New Mexico State, aligning with money distribution, but mathematical edges favor fading slightly on the spread due to home advantage and line movement. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate-paced affair with potential for over based on offensive efficiencies, though defenses could keep it close.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Missouri State — home underdog value provides the best mathematical probability in this matchup.

Highlights unavailable.