Pacific vs Pepperdine

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-04 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-04 11:12 AM EST

Pacific vs Pepperdine on 2026-01-04

💰 Best Bet #1 Pacific / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Pacific’s strong home performance and defensive efficiency against Pepperdine’s struggling offense provide a clear edge to cover the spread.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 52% / Recent trends show both teams involved in high-tempo games with above-average scoring, favoring the over despite moderate defensive ratings.

💰 Best Bet #3 Pacific / Moneyline / -190 / 68% / Home-court advantage combined with Pepperdine’s road woes makes Pacific the solid favorite to secure the win.

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Pacific 65% / Pepperdine 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Pacific 55% / Pepperdine 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -3.5 and moved to -4.5 with balanced action, indicating stability and no major sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Pacific spread due to home efficiency metrics and recent form outpacing implied odds probability.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Pacific | 68% |
| Win % for Pepperdine | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Pacific | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 140 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 15] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Caleb Fields / Over 15.5 Points / 15.5 at -115 / 72% / Fields averages 18.2 PPG in home games this season, exploiting Pepperdine’s weak perimeter defense that allows 25% from three.

Player Prop #2: Michael Ajayi / Over 12.5 Rebounds / 12.5 at -110 / 65% / Ajayi grabs 11.8 RPG overall, with Pacific’s frontcourt vulnerable to offensive rebounding at 28% rate in recent matchups.

Player Prop #3: Kai Johnson / Under 4.5 Assists / 4.5 at -120 / 70% / Johnson’s assist numbers drop to 3.1 on the road against Pacific’s press defense, which forces 22% turnovers.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Pacific, aligning with money distribution and sharp indicators, making following the favorite optimal without need for a fade. Pepperdine’s recent losses highlight defensive lapses, while Pacific’s home splits suggest control. Overall, the game projects as moderately high-scoring, with totals likely exceeding the line based on pace and efficiency data.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Pacific — home metrics and form provide the highest probability edge.

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