Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta Hawks

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-05 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-05 06:16 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Toronto Raptors / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Raptors hold a home edge with Hawks missing Trae Young, aligning with 54% cover probability in simulations and recent form favoring Toronto in similar matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 233.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show defensive improvements lately, with average total points at 224.2 and injuries to key scorers like Young and Poeltl tilting toward a lower-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Toronto Raptors / Moneyline / -138 / 58% / Home advantage and Atlanta’s significant absence give Toronto the edge, backed by 58% win probability from market consensus and metrics.]

Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta Hawks on 2026-01-05

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[65% Toronto Raptors / 35% Atlanta Hawks]

💰 Money Distribution

[70% Toronto Raptors / 30% Atlanta Hawks]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Raptors -2 and moved to -3 amid heavy public action on Toronto, but stabilized at -2.5 as sharp money balanced the market post-injury confirmations.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Raptors spread / Consensus from simulations, home form, and injury impacts shows value against implied odds, with no RLM contradicting the favorite.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toronto Raptors | 58% |
| Win % for Atlanta Hawks | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Toronto Raptors | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 224.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, 8.3] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Raptors, aligning with sharp money and mathematical projections due to Atlanta’s key absences like Trae Young, creating a clear edge on the home team without need for a fade. Defensive metrics from recent games suggest a controlled pace, supporting the under as both squads adjust to injuries. Overall, the matchup points to a moderate-scoring win for Toronto, with EV strongest on the spread.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Toronto Raptors / Strong alignment across public, money, and simulations confirms the favorite as the optimal side.]

Highlights unavailable.