New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-06 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-06 10:30 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New Jersey Devils / Puck Line / -1.5 at +140 / 58% / Devils’ strong defensive metrics and home advantage against injury-plagued Islanders support covering the puck line, with recent form showing dominance in similar matchups.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 62% / Both teams’ low xGA per 60 and goaltender save percentages indicate a low-scoring affair, though historical trends suggest flipping to under for value despite slight over lean in sims.
💰 Best Bet #3 New Jersey Devils / Moneyline / -132 / 55% / Devils’ superior roster depth and rest advantage outweigh Islanders’ road struggles, aligning with sharp money on home favorite.

New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils on 2026-01-06

Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
New York Islanders 42% / New Jersey Devils 58%

💰 Money Distribution
New York Islanders 35% / New Jersey Devils 65%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Devils -1.25 (-110) and moved to -1.5 (+140) with heavy money on Devils despite public split, indicating sharp action on home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Devils puck line; convergence of money % on favorite, RLM against public underdog bets, and Devils’ current season xGF edge (1.12 vs Islanders’ 0.98) supports positive EV without forcing contrarian play.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Islanders | 45% |
| Win % for New Jersey Devils | 55% |
| Puck Line Cover % for New York Islanders (+1.5) | 68% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, +1.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jack Hughes / Over Points / 0.5 at -120 / 72% / Hughes’ high usage rate (22.5%) and power-play involvement yield 1.2 points per game average against similar defenses, with Devils’ possession dominance boosting scoring chances.
Player Prop #2: Mathew Barzal / Under Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -110 / 68% / Barzal averages 2.1 SOG in road games, facing Devils’ stout high-danger defense (89% save rate), and recent form shows under in 4 of last 5.
Player Prop #3: Jesper Bratt / Over Assists / 0.5 at +105 / 65% / Bratt’s 0.9 assists per game on home ice, paired with Hischier’s playmaking, exploits Islanders’ penalty kill weaknesses (78% efficiency).

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans Devils but with less conviction than sharp money, creating alignment without significant fade opportunity; following the home favorite optimizes EV given Devils’ superior Corsi% (52.3 vs 47.8) and fewer key injuries. Islanders’ road xGA (3.2) suggests defensive vulnerabilities, but overall game outlook points to moderate scoring under 6 total goals due to strong goaltending matchups. No contrarian edge emerges as metrics confirm market consensus.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New Jersey Devils — mathematical probability favors home win at 55% with positive EV on key lines.

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