Winnipeg Jets vs Vegas Golden Knights

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-06 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-06 10:32 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Winnipeg Jets / Spread / +1.5 at -175 / 68% / Jets show resilience at home against a road-weary Vegas squad, with recent defensive metrics supporting a close contest despite the Knights’ slight edge in xGF.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams’ recent games trend low-scoring with strong penalty kills and goaltending, though simulation data initially favors over—flipped per historical NHL prediction accuracy.

💰 Best Bet #3 Winnipeg Jets / Moneyline / -105 / 55% / Home-ice advantage and Jets’ motivation to end skid outweigh Vegas’ inconsistent road form, aligning with line value.

Winnipeg Jets vs Vegas Golden Knights on 2026-01-06

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

Public Bets

Vegas 58% / Winnipeg 42%

Money Distribution

Vegas 62% / Winnipeg 38%

Market Alignment

Aligned

Line Movement

Line opened Vegas -120 ML, moved to -115 amid balanced action; total steady at 5.5 with minor under tick.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Winnipeg side—public leans Vegas but sharp money and RLM favor Jets’ value in a projected tight game.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Winnipeg Jets | 52% |
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Winnipeg Jets | 61% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Kyle Connor / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -120 / 72% / Connor averages 3.8 SOG in home games this season, facing Vegas’ average high-danger defense allowing 32 shots per matchup.

Player Prop #2: Mark Stone / Under Points / 0.5 at -130 / 65% / Stone’s recent form shows 0.4 points per game on road, with Jets’ PK at 85% stifling Vegas’ power play efficiency.

Player Prop #3: Josh Morrissey / Over Blocked Shots / 2.5 at +110 / 58% / Morrissey leads Jets D with 2.7 blocks per game, boosted by Vegas’ shot volume of 28 per contest and home defensive zone starts.

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment tilts toward Vegas, aligning with money distribution, but sharp indicators and Jets’ home metrics suggest following the value on Winnipeg without a full fade. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with both teams’ xGA under 2.8 per 60 minutes limiting explosive plays. Overall, contextual factors like Jets’ rest advantage tip the scales toward a competitive, under-leaning affair.

Recommended Play

Follow the public with Winnipeg Jets — mathematical probability favors their cover and outright win based on EV and simulation convergence.

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