Army vs Loyola Maryland

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:23 AM EST

Army vs Loyola Maryland on 2026-01-07

💰 Best Bet #1 [Army / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Army’s strong home defense and recent form give them an edge, with simulation showing 55% cover rate against a struggling Loyola offense.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams’ recent games trend toward higher scoring, with Army’s pace and Loyola’s poor perimeter defense supporting a slight lean over the line.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Army / Moneyline / -190 / 65% / Simulation projects 65% win probability for Army at home, factoring in Loyola’s road struggles and key injuries.]

Game Times
ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[62% / 38%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Opened at -3.5 for Army, moved to -4.5 with balanced action but slight sharp money on home team.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Army spread; simulation and home advantage outweigh public lean, creating value despite no major RLM.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Army | 65% |
| Win % for Loyola Maryland | 30% |
| Spread Cover % for Army | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 142 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 15] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: TJ Small (Army) / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 62% / Small’s usage rate exceeds 25% in home games, and Loyola’s weak interior defense allows 15+ points to guards on average.
Player Prop #2: Jordan St. John (Loyola Maryland) / Under Points / 12.5 at -110 / 58% / St. John’s efficiency drops on the road against Army’s top-200 defensive rating, with recent unders in 4 of 5 away games.
Player Prop #3: Army Team / Over Assists / 13.5 at -105 / 55% / Army’s ball movement shines at home (avg 15 assists), exploiting Loyola’s turnover-prone press.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Army but aligns with sharp money and simulation metrics, making a follow optimal rather than a fade. No significant RLM or injury disruptions alter the edge. The game projects as moderately high-scoring due to Army’s efficient offense (top-150 O-efficiency) against Loyola’s middling defense, though total remains close to the line.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Army] — simulation and market consensus point to a strong home win probability.

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