Vanderbilt vs Alabama

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:52 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Vanderbilt / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 55% / Vanderbilt’s home advantage and Alabama’s key injuries, including Aiden Sherrell questionable, support covering the spread based on recent defensive efficiency.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank in the top half for defensive rebounding and turnover forcing, with Alabama’s slower tempo likely keeping the game under the line.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Vanderbilt / Moneyline / -185 / 61% / Superior adjusted efficiency ratings and home-court edge give Vanderbilt the highest win probability against an injury-plagued Alabama.]

Vanderbilt vs Alabama on 2026-01-07

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

Public Bets

[Vanderbilt 58% / Alabama 42%]

Money Distribution

[Vanderbilt 62% / Alabama 38%]

Market Alignment

[Aligned]

Line Movement

Line opened at -3.5 and moved to -4.5 with balanced action, showing stability despite slight public lean toward Vanderbilt.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Vanderbilt spread / Simulation and efficiency metrics converge on a 55% cover rate, exceeding implied odds probability, while injuries amplify the edge.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Vanderbilt | 61% |
| Win % for Alabama | 39% |
| Spread Cover % for Vanderbilt (-4.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 146.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, +10.8] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Vanderbilt, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow strategy optimal as metrics support the favorite without overvaluation. Alabama’s injuries to players like Aiden Sherrell and Collins Onyejiaka weaken their rotation, favoring Vanderbilt’s depth. Overall game scoring projects low due to both teams’ solid defensive rebounding percentages and moderate tempos, pointing to a controlled, under-paced matchup.

Recommended Play

Follow the public with Vanderbilt — simulation win probability and injury context confirm the mathematical edge on the favorite.

Highlights unavailable.