Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-11 04:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 06:13 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Eagles / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 56% / Eagles benefit from home-field advantage in playoffs, 49ers linebacker injuries weaken run defense, and line movement favors Philadelphia amid sharp action.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 46.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ recent games show mixed totals but defensive metrics and injuries suggest controlled pace, with Eagles allowing 24.5 PPG lately and 49ers struggling offensively.
💰 Best Bet #3 Eagles / Moneyline / -200 / 62% / Simulation projects strong win probability for Philadelphia at home against depleted 49ers, supported by EPA edges and turnover margin.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia Eagles | 62% |
| Win % for San Francisco 49ers | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Philadelphia Eagles | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 45.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, 10.8] |

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers on 2026-01-11

Game Times

ET: 4:30 PM
CT: 3:30 PM
MT: 2:30 PM
PT: 1:30 PM
AKT: 12:30 PM
HST: 10:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Eagles 70% / 49ers 30%

💰 Money Distribution
Eagles 65% / 49ers 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Eagles -2.5 and moved to -4.5, favoring Philadelphia despite public backing, indicating sharp money on the home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Eagles spread; reverse line movement against public percentage signals value, bolstered by 49ers injuries and Eagles’ home EPA advantage in current season.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jalen Hurts / Over Passing Yards / 235.5 / -110 / 68% / Hurts averages 250+ yards in home playoff simulations, 49ers secondary vulnerable without key LBs creating pressure issues, supported by 65% completion rate vs similar defenses.
Player Prop #2: A.J. Brown / Over Receiving Yards / 75.5 / -115 / 72% / Brown thrives against man coverage (85 yards per game average), 49ers DBs allow 7.2 YAC, and Eagles’ offensive line with Lane Johnson back protects for deep shots.
Player Prop #3: Christian McCaffrey / Under Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -105 / 65% / 49ers O-line depleted, Eagles front seven ranks top-5 in rush defense (3.8 YPC allowed), McCaffrey’s recent road games average 70 yards amid injuries.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Eagles, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by line movement toward Philadelphia despite high public percentage on the favorite. Following the public is optimal here, as metrics like EPA per play and injury impacts confirm value without contrarian edges. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, with both defenses capable of limiting big plays—Eagles allow low red-zone efficiency, and 49ers injuries hinder explosive offense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Eagles — simulation and market data project highest probability of Philadelphia covering and winning at home.

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