Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-12 08:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 06:15 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Pittsburgh Steelers / Spread / +3 at -110 / 55% / Steelers’ defense ranks top-5 in points allowed, covering in 4 of last 5 home games; sim shows 55.1% cover rate against Texans’ road struggles.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 39.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams bottom-10 in pace and scoring over last 5; Texans allow 17.4 PPG recently, Steelers 74.2 passer rating limits big plays.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Houston Texans / Moneyline / -160 / 55% / Texans won 9 straight, superior EPA/play; sim projects 54.8% win probability in low-scoring affair.]

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans on 2026-01-12

Game Times

ET: 08:15 PM
CT: 07:15 PM
MT: 06:15 PM
PT: 05:15 PM
AKT: 04:15 PM
HST: 02:15 PM

💸 Public Bets

[40% / 60%]

💰 Money Distribution

[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Texans -2.5, moved to -3 despite 60% public on Texans, indicating some sharp action on Steelers.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Steelers +3; reverse line movement and sim cover rate exceed implied odds probability of 52.4%.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|———————————————|——————————————–|
| Win % for Pittsburgh Steelers | 45.2% |
| Win % for Houston Texans | 54.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Pittsburgh Steelers | 55.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 43.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.2, 12.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: C.J. Stroud / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -115 / 62% / Stroud averages 278 YPG last 5, Steelers secondary vulnerable to deep passes (allows 7.2 YPA); matchup favors over with no major injuries.
Player Prop #2: Najee Harris / Under Rushing Yards / 65.5 / -110 / 58% / Texans D top-3 vs run (3.8 YPC allowed), Harris 52 YPG last 3; low total projects limited ground game.
Player Prop #3: Nico Collins / Over Receiving Yards / 72.5 / -120 / 60% / Collins 85 YPG vs similar defenses, Steelers CB injuries open targets; high usage rate (28%) supports over.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans Texans but money distribution shows slight divergence, with sharp play on Steelers spread via RLM. Fade the public here as math and sim favor home underdog cover in a defensive battle. Game outlook points to low scoring, with combined defenses allowing under 35 PPG recently.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Texans / Follow the public with Steelers +3 / No clear edge] — mathematical probability highest on Steelers spread.

Highlights unavailable.