Florida Gulf Coast vs Austin Peay

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-08 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-08 11:07 AM EST

Florida Gulf Coast vs Austin Peay on 2026-01-08

💰 Best Bet #1 Florida Gulf Coast / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Florida Gulf Coast shows strong home efficiency and recent form, covering in 60% of simulations against ASUN foes, with Austin Peay struggling on the road.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams average high tempo and poor defensive rebounding, leading to games exceeding 150 points in 55% of similar matchups this season.

💰 Best Bet #3 Florida Gulf Coast / Moneyline / -250 / 62% / Home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency give Florida Gulf Coast a clear edge, winning 62% in Monte Carlo runs.

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Florida Gulf Coast 65% / Austin Peay 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Florida Gulf Coast 55% / Austin Peay 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6 and moved to -5.5 with balanced action, no significant sharp resistance noted.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Florida Gulf Coast spread; convergence of home metrics and simulation probabilities outweighs public lean without RLM signals.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Florida Gulf Coast | 62% |
| Win % for Austin Peay | 36% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida Gulf Coast | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 149.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 20.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Florida Gulf Coast, aligning with sharp money distribution and mathematical projections from efficiency ratings, supporting a follow strategy rather than a fade. Austin Peay’s road defensive issues contribute to the value on the home side. Overall scoring outlook favors a moderate-paced game pushing slightly over the total, driven by Florida Gulf Coast’s offensive rebounding edge against Austin Peay’s weaker interior defense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Florida Gulf Coast — simulation and market data confirm the highest probability of success on the favorite.

Highlights unavailable.