Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-09 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 06:25 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Oklahoma City Thunder / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 55% / Thunder maintain edge despite injuries, leveraging depth and defensive rating against Grizzlies’ depleted offense with Morant out]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 222.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams’ pace and recent scoring trends suggest high output, with Thunder’s efficiency offsetting key absences]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Oklahoma City Thunder / Moneyline / -185 / 60% / Superior overall rating and home/road splits favor Thunder in 55% of simulations]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 45% |
| Win % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Memphis Grizzlies (+5.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points | 222 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, +6] |

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder on 2026-01-09

Game Times
ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[35% / 65%]

💰 Money Distribution
[30% / 70%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Thunder -5.5 but shifted to -4.5 after Thunder injury news, indicating sharp adjustment despite public lean on favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Thunder spread; simulations and defensive metrics support cover probability above implied odds, even with key absences.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: [Jalen Williams / Over Points / 24.5 at -115 / 65% / With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, Williams’ usage rate jumps to 32% in recent games, averaging 26.8 points against similar defenses.]

Player Prop #2: [Jaren Jackson Jr. / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 62% / Grizzlies’ rebounding rate improves without Morant crowding the paint; Jackson averages 9.2 boards in last 5, facing Thunder’s shorthanded frontcourt.]

Player Prop #3: [Desmond Bane / Over Assists / 4.5 at -105 / 58% / Increased ball-handling duties with Morant sidelined boost Bane’s assist numbers to 5.1 per game recently, exploiting Thunder’s perimeter focus.]

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Thunder, aligning with sharp money distribution, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading without clear RLM or injury overreaction. Both teams’ offensive ratings suggest a moderate-scoring affair, but pace and absences tilt toward the over. Contextual factors like Thunder’s depth provide the mathematical edge despite the Grizzlies’ home advantage.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Oklahoma City Thunder / No clear edge] — simulations confirm 55% win probability as the strongest outcome.

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