Phoenix Suns vs New York Knicks

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-09 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 06:27 PM EST

Phoenix Suns vs New York Knicks on 2026-01-09

💰 Best Bet #1 Phoenix Suns / +1.5 / -110 / 58% / Suns excel at home with a 13-4 ATS record, while Knicks struggle on the road at 4-12 ATS; simulation shows strong cover probability amid Knicks’ poor performance against top defenses like Phoenix’s No. 9 rating.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 229.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams show defensive tendencies in recent matchups, with Suns ranking high in defensive efficiency and Knicks allowing fewer points on the road; average simulated total of 226.2 supports a lower-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Phoenix Suns / Moneyline / -105 / 52% / Slight edge to Suns at home despite being underdogs, backed by 52% win probability in simulations and Knicks’ 1-6 road record vs. top defenses.

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Knicks 55% / Suns 45%

💰 Money Distribution
Suns 60% / Knicks 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Knicks -2.5 but moved to -1.5, indicating sharp action on Suns despite public favoritism toward New York.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Suns spread; reverse line movement and money concentration on Phoenix outweigh public lean, creating value with home ATS dominance and simulation alignment.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Phoenix Suns | 52% |
| Win % for New York Knicks | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Phoenix Suns | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 226.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-11.8, 15.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Devin Booker / Over Points / 26.5 at -110 / 70% / Booker has averaged 32.25 points in last four games vs. Knicks, exploiting their perimeter defense; high usage rate and Suns’ home pace favor exceeding this line based on recent offensive efficiency.

Player Prop #2: Jalen Brunson / Over Points / 25.5 at -110 / 65% / Brunson scores 35+ in two of last three vs. Suns, with Knicks relying on his ISO creation amid injuries; matchup against Phoenix’s spot-up defense supports over, aligning with 70% hit rate in similar games.

Player Prop #3: Karl-Anthony Towns / Over Rebounds / 10.5 at -110 / 62% / Towns grabs 12+ rebounds in road games vs. top rebounding teams like Suns; Knicks’ interior focus and Phoenix’s pace create opportunities, with recent form showing 11.2 average and positive matchup data.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors the Knicks, but divergent money flow and reverse line movement signal sharp resistance, making a fade of the public optimal on the Suns side. Simulations and ATS trends confirm value in Phoenix covering at home, where defensive metrics limit Knicks’ road efficiency. Overall game outlook leans under due to both teams’ top-10 defensive ratings and injury impacts reducing offensive output.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Knicks — Suns hold the mathematical edge with 52% win probability and strong home form against a road-weak New York squad.

Highlights unavailable.