NHL
Montreal Canadiens vs 
Detroit Red Wings
League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-10 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 11:19 AM EST
Montreal Canadiens vs Detroit Red Wings on 2026-01-10
💰 Best Bet #1 Detroit Red Wings / Puck Line / +1.5 at -180 / 58% Confidence
The simulation shows Montreal covering -1.5 only 42% of the time, with Detroit’s defensive metrics and recent form against Atlantic Division foes providing value on the plus side despite being the underdog.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 52% Confidence
Offensive trends indicate a potential for goals, with both teams averaging over 2.7 goals per game recently; flipping the simulation’s slight under lean highlights value on over based on historical NHL prediction adjustments and matchup pace.
💰 Best Bet #3 Montreal Canadiens / Moneyline / -130 / 55% Confidence
Home-ice advantage and superior xGF metrics give Montreal the edge, supported by line stability and a 55.2% win probability in simulations.
Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM
💸 Public Bets
Montreal 65% / Detroit 35%
💰 Money Distribution
Montreal 55% / Detroit 45%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Line stable at Montreal -1.5, with slight movement toward the total from 5 to 5.5 amid balanced action.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Montreal moneyline, driven by line stability and contextual home dominance despite public lean.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Montreal Canadiens | 55.2% |
| Win % for Detroit Red Wings | 44.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Montreal Canadiens | 42.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Nick Suzuki / Over 0.5 Points / -120 / 72% Confidence
Suzuki’s central role in Montreal’s offense, with 1.2 points per game average against similar defenses, supports the over; Detroit’s penalty kill ranks 18th, boosting power-play chances.
Player Prop #2: Dylan Larkin / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / +110 / 68% Confidence
Larkin’s high usage rate (3.1 SOG per game) and Montreal’s allowance of 31 shots to centers make this favorable; recent form shows him exceeding in 7 of last 10 road games.
Player Prop #3: Juraj Slafkovsky / Over 0.5 Points / +150 / 65% Confidence
As a key winger, Slafkovsky’s chemistry with top lines yields 0.8 points per game; Detroit’s defensive vulnerabilities against left wings from the right side enhance scoring probability.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans heavily toward Montreal, aligning with sharp money distribution, suggesting consensus value on the home side without strong reverse line movement to fade. Detroit’s road struggles and Montreal’s rest advantage reinforce following the public here, though the aligned action tempers aggressive sizing. Overall scoring outlook points to a moderate-paced game around 5.4 goals, with both teams’ average defenses allowing exploitable chances but goalie stability capping extremes.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Montreal — the alignment and simulation win probability make this the optimal mathematical choice.
Highlights unavailable.