Fairfield vs Rider

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-09 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 11:03 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Fairfield / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 60% / Fairfield’s strong home efficiency and Rider’s road struggles create a clear edge, with simulation showing 55% cover rate exceeding implied odds.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 160.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ recent games trend toward higher scoring, with adjusted efficiencies and pace supporting a slight lean over the line despite defensive efforts.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Fairfield / Moneyline / -280 / 75% / Dominant win probability from simulation aligns with home advantage and Rider’s offensive woes in current season.]

🏀 Matchup: Fairfield vs Rider on 2026-01-09

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Fairfield 70% / Rider 30%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Fairfield 65% / Rider 35%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Stable at -6.5 for Fairfield; opened at -6 and held firm with balanced action, no significant RLM despite public lean]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Fairfield spread; simulation and efficiency metrics exceed implied odds probability, with positive EV from home advantage and Rider’s current season road struggles]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Fairfield | 75.0% |
| Win % for Rider | 25.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Fairfield | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 160.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.0, 25.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Fairfield, aligning with sharp money distribution and simulation outcomes, making a follow on the favorite optimal rather than a fade. Rider’s poor offensive efficiency in road games this season bolsters the case for Fairfield covering. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with totals likely pushing over due to Fairfield’s pace against Rider’s weak defense.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Fairfield] — simulation and market data confirm the highest probability of success on the home favorite.

Highlights unavailable.