Iona vs Niagara

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-09 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 11:04 AM EST

Iona vs Niagara on 2026-01-09

💰 Best Bet #1 [Iona / Spread / -10.5 at -110 / 58% / Iona’s strong home efficiency and Niagara’s road struggles align with line movement favoring the Gaels, supported by recent form in the MAAC.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams show defensive rebounding edges and lower tempo in conference play, with average totals trending below 140 in similar matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Iona / Moneyline / -550 / 72% / Simulation projects clear dominance for Iona at home, backed by superior adjusted offensive rating against Niagara’s weaker defense.]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Iona 75% / Niagara 25%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Iona 65% / Niagara 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line moved from Iona -13.5 to -10.5, a 3-point shift toward Niagara despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp interest in the underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Iona spread; EV derived from simulation cover rate exceeding implied probability, with RLM confirming value against public overreaction to Iona’s home streak.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Iona | 72.0% |
| Win % for Niagara | 28.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Iona | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 138.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.0, 25.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure from current data sources.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Iona, aligning with money distribution and simulation outcomes, making a follow-public approach optimal rather than a forced fade. Sharp action via RLM tempers the spread but doesn’t overturn the edge. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with both teams’ defensive metrics and pace suggesting a controlled, under-paced affair below the total line.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Iona] — simulation and market consensus point to the highest probability of a Gaels victory and cover.

Highlights unavailable.