Hofstra vs Monmouth

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 12:10 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Hofstra / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 60% / Hofstra’s strong home form (8-1 SU) and defensive efficiency (95 adj D) give them an edge to cover against Monmouth’s average offense, supported by recent line movement favoring the Pride.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a moderate tempo (Hofstra 70, Monmouth 68), with Hofstra allowing 72 PPG at home and Monmouth scoring 68 on the road, pointing to a controlled, lower-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Hofstra / Moneyline / -190 / 70% / Superior overall record (12-4 vs 8-8) and CAA dominance (3-0) make Hofstra the clear favorite, with simulation projecting 68% win probability.]

Hofstra vs Monmouth on 2026-01-10

Game Times

ET: 2:00 PM
CT: 1:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Hofstra 65% / Monmouth 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Hofstra 60% / Monmouth 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Hofstra -3.5 but moved to -4.5 with balanced action, indicating some sharp support for the home team despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Hofstra spread; implied probability of 52.4% vs estimated true probability of 55%, driven by home advantage and matchup metrics.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Hofstra | 68% |
| Win % for Monmouth | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Hofstra | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 148 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 20] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Ja’Quan Jackson / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 75% / Jackson averages 20.2 PPG in CAA play with high usage (28%), facing Monmouth’s weak perimeter D (38% opp 3P%), likely to exceed in a favorable matchup.

Player Prop #2: Xander Rice / Under Points / 15.5 at -110 / 70% / Rice at 14.8 PPG recently but Hofstra’s top-50 def efficiency limits guards; his 12.5 PPG vs similar foes supports under.

Player Prop #3: Jalen Hawkins / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -120 / 65% / Hawkins grabs 7.2 RPG at home, exploiting Monmouth’s poor offensive rebounding (28%), with simulation showing ample opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Hofstra, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Both teams’ defensive metrics suggest a game under the total, with Hofstra’s home crowd boosting their edge without major injury concerns. Overall scoring outlook is moderate, around 148 points, favoring unders in a disciplined matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Hofstra] — mathematical probability favors the Pride covering and winning based on form, efficiency, and simulation convergence.

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