UT Arlington vs Abilene Christian

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 12:26 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 UT Arlington / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 52% / UT Arlington holds a clear home-court edge with stronger recent scoring averages (72.3 PPG) against Abilene Christian’s defensive vulnerabilities, supported by adjusted efficiency metrics showing a positive matchup.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit moderate tempos and offensive outputs exceeding the line in recent games, with UT Arlington’s 72.3 PPG and Abilene Christian’s 70.8 allowed points suggesting a combined total above average despite no major pace disruptions.

💰 Best Bet #3 UT Arlington / Moneyline / -200 / 55% / Home advantage and superior form give UT Arlington the edge in win probability, aligning with simulation outcomes and current season splits.

UT Arlington vs Abilene Christian on 2026-01-10

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

65% UT Arlington / 35% Abilene Christian

💰 Money Distribution

55% UT Arlington / 45% Abilene Christian

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -5 for UT Arlington but ticked to -4.5 despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp resistance on the underdog side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% EV on UT Arlington -4.5, driven by reverse line movement against public sentiment and home efficiency advantages outweighing Abilene Christian’s rebounding strength.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UT Arlington | 55.0% |
| Win % for Abilene Christian | 45.0% |
| Spread Cover % for UT Arlington | 48.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 50.0% / Under: 50.0% |
| Average Total Points | 143.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-24.0, 25.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Daedon McCreary / Over Points / 20.5 at -115 / 72% / McCreary’s recent 39-point outing highlights his high usage (25%) against Abilene Christian’s perimeter defense allowing 35% from three, with offensive efficiency supporting a strong scoring night.

Player Prop #2: Bradyn Hubbard / Under Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 68% / Hubbard averages 3.8 defensive boards but faces UT Arlington’s solid rebounding rate (52% opponent), recent trends showing unders in road games with limited second-chance opportunities.

Player Prop #3: Daedon McCreary / Over Assists / 3.5 at -120 / 70% / As primary ball-handler with 4.2 APG in home games, McCreary exploits Abilene Christian’s turnover-forcing defense (18% opponent TO rate), backed by playmaking metrics in similar matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward UT Arlington, aligning with money distribution and mathematical edges from efficiency ratings, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. No significant injuries alter the outlook, with both teams healthy entering the contest. The game projects as moderately high-scoring based on offensive averages and defensive allowances, favoring overs in total points.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with UT Arlington — home form and simulation win probability provide the strongest mathematical backing for success.

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