Eastern Illinois vs Tennessee State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 04:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 12:50 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Tennessee State / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Tennessee State shows superior adjusted efficiency ratings and recent road form against similar opponents, with Eastern Illinois struggling defensively at home in OVC play.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank low in pace and offensive rebounding percentages, with recent games averaging under this line despite moderate defensive efficiencies.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Tennessee State / Moneyline / -190 / 62% / Strong win probability backed by better turnover margin and depth, especially with Eastern Illinois’ injury concerns impacting scoring.]

🏀 Eastern Illinois vs Tennessee State on 2026-01-10

Game Times

ET: 4:30 PM
CT: 3:30 PM
MT: 2:30 PM
PT: 1:30 PM
AKT: 12:30 PM
HST: 10:30 AM

💸 Public Bets

[Tennessee State 68% / Eastern Illinois 32%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Tennessee State 72% / Eastern Illinois 28%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Tennessee State -3.5 and moved to -4.5 with heavy action on the favorite, indicating sharp support despite public leaning.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Tennessee State spread; implied probability undervalues their edge in success rate and 3-point defense against Eastern Illinois’ weak perimeter game.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Eastern Illinois | 38% |
| Win % for Tennessee State | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Eastern Illinois (+4.5) | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 139.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.1, 8.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Carlos Curtis (Tennessee State) / Over Points / 15.5 at -115 / 68% / Curtis averages 16.2 PPG in recent OVC games with high usage (28%), facing Eastern Illinois’ bottom-10 defensive efficiency allowing guards to exploit mismatches.

Player Prop #2: NaShawn Hyland (Eastern Illinois) / Under Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 65% / Hyland’s rebound rate drops to 8% on the road against physical fronts like Tennessee State’s, who limit opponents to 32% offensive rebounding.

Player Prop #3: Jaylen Jones (Tennessee State) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -112 / 70% / Jones dishes 5.1 APG in wins, benefiting from Tennessee State’s efficient half-court offense and Eastern Illinois’ high turnover-forcing rate creating transition opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Tennessee State, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement, making following the favorite the optimal play without need for a fade. Both teams’ low-tempo styles and solid interior defenses suggest a controlled, lower-scoring affair under the total. Overall, the matchup tilts toward Tennessee State’s experience edge in conference play.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Tennessee State] — mathematical probabilities and market consensus point to their higher win likelihood.

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