Lamar vs Incarnate Word

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 01:10 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Lamar / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 62% / Lamar’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (105.2) and home-court advantage against Incarnate Word’s weak road defense (allowing 78.4 PPG) indicate a strong cover probability, supported by recent form where Lamar covered in 4 of last 5 home games.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for tempo (Lamar 68.3 plays per game, Incarnate Word 67.1) with middling efficiencies, leading to low-scoring outputs in 70% of combined recent matchups; injuries to key scorers further suppress pace.

💰 Best Bet #3 Lamar / Moneyline / -190 / 68% / Consensus from KenPom rankings (Lamar #148 vs. Incarnate Word #261) and simulation win probability align with market pricing, offering value despite public lean.

Lamar vs Incarnate Word on 2026-01-10

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Lamar 68% / Incarnate Word 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Lamar 58% / Incarnate Word 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Lamar -3.5, moved to -4.5 amid moderate public action on the favorite but sharp money balancing the underdog side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Lamar spread due to reverse line movement against public percentage and positive EV from efficiency differentials exceeding implied odds.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Lamar | 68.2% |
| Win % for Incarnate Word | 31.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Lamar | 58.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.7% / Under: 51.3% |
| Average Total Points | 141.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18.5, 22.3] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: C.J. Roberts (Lamar) / Over Points / 16.5 at -115 / 72% / Roberts averages 18.2 PPG in home games with high usage (28.4%) against Incarnate Word’s porous perimeter defense (37.1% opponent 3P%), hitting over in 8 of last 10.

Player Prop #2: David Balogun (Incarnate Word) / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 65% / Balogun’s rebounding dips to 5.8 on the road due to Lamar’s strong interior defense (top-150 defensive rebounding rate at 72.4%), under in 6 of 7 away contests.

Player Prop #3: Ike Cornish (Lamar) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -120 / 70% / As primary ball-handler, Cornish dishes 5.6 APG at home with Incarnate Word allowing 14.2 opponent assists per game; over in 70% of similar matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Lamar, aligning with sharp money distribution and mathematical projections from efficiency metrics, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Incarnate Word’s road struggles and turnover-prone offense (18.2% rate) limit upset potential. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with both defenses capable of forcing misses in a controlled pace environment.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Lamar — superior metrics and home advantage provide the highest probability of success.

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