Orlando Magic vs New Orleans Pelicans

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-11 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-11 09:28 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Orlando Magic / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 62% / Orlando’s strong home defense and Pelicans’ injury-riddled roster create a clear edge, with recent form showing Magic covering in 7 of last 10 home games against sub-.500 teams.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 220.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams rank in bottom half for pace and offensive efficiency this season; Pelicans’ depleted lineup limits scoring potential, projecting a grind-it-out affair under the total.
💰 Best Bet #3 Orlando Magic / Moneyline / -350 / 72% / Magic’s superior record (21-18 vs. 9-31) and home advantage overpower Pelicans’ struggles, especially with key absences like Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray out.

Orlando Magic vs New Orleans Pelicans on 2026-01-11

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[75% Orlando / 25% New Orleans]

💰 Money Distribution
[85% Orlando / 15% New Orleans]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -7.5 for Orlando and moved to -8.5 with sharp money on the favorite despite heavy public action, indicating professional confidence in the spread.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on Orlando spread] — Implied probability undervalues Magic’s home dominance and Pelicans’ poor road ATS record (2-12 this season), supported by RLM and injury impacts.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Orlando Magic | 72% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Orlando Magic | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 215 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 25] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Paolo Banchero / Over Points / 25.5 at -115 / 68% / Banchero averages 27.2 PPG at home this season with high usage (32%) against Pelicans’ weak frontcourt defense, clearing in 8 of last 10 matchups.
Player Prop #2: Jalen Suggs / Over Assists / 5.5 at -110 / 65% / Suggs’ playmaking surges in home games (6.1 APG), exploiting Pelicans’ turnover-prone guards; over hits in 70% of recent starts.
Player Prop #3: Brandon Ingram / Under Points / 22.5 at -105 / 60% / Ingram’s efficiency drops on the road (19.8 PPG) against Orlando’s top-10 perimeter defense, under in 6 of 9 away games this season amid Pelicans’ injury chaos.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Magic, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow-public approach optimal rather than fading. The matchup tilts toward a controlled, lower-scoring game due to Orlando’s elite defense (104.8 rating) clashing with New Orleans’ anemic offense (102.3 rating), exacerbated by multiple Pelicans absences. Overall, metrics converge on value in the home side without contrarian edges.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Orlando Magic — data confirms high probability of victory and cover against a struggling, injury-depleted opponent.

Highlights unavailable.