Memphis Grizzlies vs Brooklyn Nets

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-11 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-11 09:29 AM EST

Memphis Grizzlies vs Brooklyn Nets on 2026-01-11

💰 Best Bet #1 Memphis Grizzlies / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 55% / Grizzlies show strong home defense allowing under 105 points recently, while Nets struggle on road with poor shooting efficiency against top defenses.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 220 at -110 / 52% / Both teams play at below-average pace in current season, with Memphis defensive rating elite and Brooklyn offensive rating lagging, leading to low-scoring trends in matchups.
💰 Best Bet #3 Memphis Grizzlies / Moneyline / -300 / 73% / Dominant win probability driven by home advantage and superior net rating, with Nets winless in last five road games.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 73% |
| Win % for Brooklyn Nets | 27% |
| Spread Cover % for Memphis Grizzlies | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 218.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 25] |

Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
65% Memphis / 35% Brooklyn

💰 Money Distribution
55% Memphis / 45% Brooklyn

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line moved from -5 to -7.5 for Memphis despite moderate public support, indicating sharp money on the favorite and total dropped from 224.5 to 220 suggesting under action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% EV on Memphis spread due to convergence of simulation probabilities, recent form, and reverse line movement supporting the home team without overvaluation.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Ja Morant / Over Points / 25.5 at -115 / 68% / Morant averages 28.2 points in last 10 home games with high usage rate against Nets’ weak perimeter defense allowing 25+ to lead guards.
Player Prop #2: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 62% / Jackson pulls 9.1 rebounds per game vs. Nets historically, exploiting Brooklyn’s poor defensive rebounding rate of 48% in current season.
Player Prop #3: Cam Thomas / Under Points / 20.5 at -105 / 65% / Thomas held under 20 in 7 of last 10 road games, facing Memphis’ top-ranked paint defense that limits wing scoring efficiency.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on the Memphis side, supported by line movement and strong home metrics, making following the public optimal here without contrarian value. The game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring affair given both teams’ defensive efficiencies and recent under trends in similar matchups. No clear fade opportunity emerges as EV favors the consensus.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Memphis — superior probabilities and market support confirm the edge.

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