NBA
Phoenix Suns vs 
Washington Wizards
League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-11 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-11 06:14 PM EST
🏀 Phoenix Suns vs Washington Wizards on 2026-01-11
💰 Best Bet #1 Phoenix Suns / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 65% / Suns dominate at home with Wizards hampered by key injuries like Trae Young and Cam Whitmore out, while recent form shows Phoenix covering in similar spots against weaker teams.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 225.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit below-average pace and defensive ratings in the current season, with Suns allowing under 110 points per game lately and Wizards struggling offensively without their stars.
💰 Best Bet #3 Phoenix Suns / Moneyline / -750 / 75% / Overwhelming favoritism backed by simulation win probability and home-court edge, as Washington has lost 80% of road games this season.
Game Times
ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM
💸 Public Bets
Phoenix Suns 75% / Washington Wizards 25%
💰 Money Distribution
Phoenix Suns 60% / Washington Wizards 40%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -11.5 for Suns and moved to -12.5 despite heavy public action on Phoenix, indicating some sharp support for the favorite based on injury impacts and recent trends from sources like FOX Sports and ScoresAndStats.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Suns spread — Implied probability from odds (52.4%) undervalues the true 60% cover chance derived from current season metrics, including Phoenix’s 15-5 home record and Washington’s 4-16 road mark, cross-verified with line movement data.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Phoenix Suns | 75% |
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 25% |
| Spread Cover % for Phoenix Suns | 60% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 218 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 25] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Devin Booker / Over Points / 28.5 at -110 / 70% / Booker’s usage rate exceeds 30% this season with Wizards’ perimeter defense weakened by injuries, averaging 30+ points in last 5 home games against sub-.400 teams.
Player Prop #2: Kevin Durant / Over Points / 25.5 at -110 / 65% / Durant’s efficiency (58% TS%) shines against Washington’s frontcourt voids, projecting 27 points based on on/off plus-minus and current season averages vs. similar matchups.
Player Prop #3: Jordan Poole / Under Points / 18.5 at -110 / 60% / Poole’s scoring dips to 15 PPG without Trae Young creating, facing Suns’ top-10 defense that limits guards to under 40% from three in recent outings.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Suns, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement toward Phoenix despite balanced money distribution, making a follow strategy optimal given the mathematical edge from injuries and home dominance. The game outlook leans toward moderate scoring, with both offenses hampered—Suns’ pace at 98 possessions and Wizards allowing 115+ points per game—favoring the under based on defensive rebounding rates and turnover margins. No strong contrarian fade applies here, as contextual factors reinforce the consensus.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Phoenix Suns — Highest probability stems from 75% simulated win rate and positive EV on the spread, supported by Washington’s depleted roster and poor road efficiency this season.
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