Florida Atlantic vs Memphis

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-11 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-11 10:18 AM EST

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis on 2026-01-11

💰 Best Bet #1 Florida Atlantic / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 55% / Owls leverage home-court edge and superior adjusted efficiency ratings against a road-weary Memphis squad, with recent form showing strong defensive stands.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit mid-tempo pace and solid defensive rebounding metrics, limiting possessions and second-chance opportunities in a projected low-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Florida Atlantic / Moneyline / -115 / 55% / FAU’s offensive efficiency and rest advantage provide a clear path to victory in this closely contested matchup.

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Florida Atlantic 65% / Memphis 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Florida Atlantic 45% / Memphis 55%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -2 for Florida Atlantic but ticked down to -1.5 amid sharp action on Memphis, signaling professional respect for the Tigers’ road potential despite public favoritism toward the home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Florida Atlantic spread, derived from implied odds probability of 52.4% versus estimated true probability of 55.5% based on KenPom efficiencies and home splits.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Florida Atlantic | 55% |
| Win % for Memphis | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida Atlantic | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 12] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Johnell Davis / Over Points / 18.5 at -110 / 65% / Davis averages 19.2 PPG in home games with high usage rate against Memphis’ perimeter defense that allows 35% from three.
Player Prop #2: Jaykwon Walton / Under Rebounds / 5.5 at -110 / 60% / Walton’s 4.8 RPG on the road drops further versus FAU’s top-50 defensive rebounding unit, limiting opportunities.
Player Prop #3: Nick Boyd / Over Assists / 4.5 at -110 / 62% / Boyd’s playmaking shines in transition, averaging 5.1 APG versus teams with Memphis’ turnover-prone backcourt.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Florida Atlantic, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement indicate sharp action on Memphis, creating value in fading the public on the spread without strong EV confirmation. Both squads rank in the top 40 for defensive efficiency, pointing to a grind-it-out game under the total. Overall scoring outlook remains muted due to foul-prone refs and mid-major pace.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Florida Atlantic — mathematical edge favors the home side despite sharp resistance, prioritizing efficiency metrics over betting volume.

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