East Carolina vs UAB

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-11 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-11 10:21 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 ECU / +4.5 / -110 / 60% / UAB holds a stronger record at 10-6 versus ECU’s 5-10, but home-court advantage at Minges Coliseum and ECU’s recent close losses suggest they keep it within 4.5 points.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 140.5 / -110 / 55% / Both teams rank in the lower half for adjusted offensive efficiency (ECU ~100, UAB ~108), with tempos around 70 possessions, pointing to a grind-it-out game under the total.

💰 Best Bet #3 UAB / Moneyline / -190 / 65% / UAB’s superior adjusted defensive efficiency (102) and 1-2 AAC start give them the edge on the road against struggling ECU.

East Carolina vs UAB on 2026-01-11

Game Times

ET: 02:00 PM
CT: 01:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 08:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
UAB 65% / ECU 35%

💰 Money Distribution
UAB 75% / ECU 25%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at UAB -3.5, moved to -4.5 amid heavy public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp resistance but overall steam towards UAB.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2% on ECU +4.5; line movement overlooks ECU’s home splits where they’ve covered in 60% of games this season, creating value against overbet UAB.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for East Carolina | 40% |
| Win % for UAB | 60% |
| Spread Cover % for East Carolina (+4.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 139 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 6] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors UAB with 65% of bets and 75% of money, aligning with sharp action as the line moves in their direction, but mathematical models highlight value in fading slightly due to ECU’s home resilience and UAB’s road vulnerabilities in AAC play. Both teams’ defensive metrics suggest a lower-scoring affair, with UAB allowing 72 points per game recently while ECU struggles offensively but holds opponents under 75 at home. Overall, the game projects as a defensive battle with limited upset potential.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on UAB — ECU +4.5 offers the best mathematical probability, supported by simulation cover rates and home advantage offsetting UAB’s edge.

Highlights unavailable.