Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-17 04:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-16 05:59 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Denver Broncos / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 55% / Broncos benefit from home-field advantage, recent rest, and Bills’ key injuries to WRs and LBs, with line movement indicating sharp action despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 46.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in points allowed per game this season, with Bills’ secondary depleted and Broncos’ run game controlling pace for a lower-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Denver Broncos / Moneyline / -115 / 52% / Denver’s superior regular-season form and home edge outweigh Buffalo’s road challenges, supported by 52% win probability in simulations.]

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills on 2026-01-17

Game Times

ET: 4:30 PM
CT: 3:30 PM
MT: 2:30 PM
PT: 1:30 PM
AKT: 12:30 PM
HST: 10:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Denver Broncos 39% / Buffalo Bills 61%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Denver Broncos 48% / Buffalo Bills 52%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Broncos +1.5 but moved to -1.5 amid heavy public betting on Bills, signaling reverse line movement and potential sharp action on Denver. Total steady at 46.5 with slight lean toward under on money.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Broncos spread; RLM against 61% public on Bills, combined with Denver’s home EPA advantage (+0.12 per play) and Buffalo’s injury-impacted offense, creates positive EV despite consensus ML pricing.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Denver Broncos | 52.0% |
| Win % for Buffalo Bills | 48.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Broncos (+1.5) | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 49.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14, 16] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Bo Nix / Over 225.5 Passing Yards / 225.5 at -110 / 60% / Nix averages 248 yards per game in home starts this season, facing a Bills secondary missing key CBs like Benford, boosting completion rate against depleted coverage.

Player Prop #2: Josh Allen / Under 1.5 Passing TDs / 1.5 at -115 / 58% / Allen’s TD rate drops to 1.1 per game on the road vs top-8 defenses, with Broncos’ pass rush (No. 5 in sacks) pressuring him into checkdowns and runs.

Player Prop #3: James Cook / Over 70.5 Rushing Yards / 70.5 at -110 / 62% / Cook hits this in 8 of 10 games vs run-weak fronts, exploiting Denver’s No. 22 rush defense ranking and Bills’ emphasis on ground game amid passing injuries.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Bills at 61%, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement to Broncos -1.5 suggest sharp professionals are fading the hype around Buffalo’s road playoff struggles. Mathematical edges align with following the line shift, as Denver’s rest advantage and Bills’ injury woes (e.g., multiple WRs and LBs out) tilt metrics toward the home team. Overall game scoring projects moderately low, with both units’ defensive efficiencies (Broncos allow 18.2 PPG, Bills 20.1) favoring the under amid cold weather forecasts.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Buffalo Bills] — line movement and EV calculations confirm Broncos as the higher-probability side in this divisional clash.

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