NFL
Seattle Seahawks vs 
San Francisco 49ers
League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-17 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-16 06:00 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 [Seahawks / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 62% / Seahawks’ dominant 14-3 record and clean injury report contrast with 49ers’ key absences like Bosa and Warner, supporting a cover in 61.8% of simulations amid aligned market action.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in EPA allowed per play this season, with 49ers’ offensive injuries limiting scoring potential, projecting 46.9 average total but favoring under based on recent low-scoring trends.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Seahawks / Moneyline / -360 / 71% / Seattle’s home-field edge at Lumen Field and superior form (13-4 ATS) provide strong value against a depleted 49ers squad, aligning with 71.2% simulated win probability.]
🏈 Matchup: Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers on 2026-01-17
Game Times
ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM
💸 Public Bets
[72% / 28%]
💰 Money Distribution
[68% / 32%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Seahawks -6.5 but has moved to -7.5 amid heavy professional action on Seattle, indicating sharp confidence despite public favoritism toward the home team.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.2% on Seahawks spread; reverse line movement against moderate public percentage supports value, with EV boosted by 49ers’ injury impacts reducing their offensive efficiency by an estimated 15% in simulations.]
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Seattle Seahawks | 71.2% |
| Win % for San Francisco 49ers | 28.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Seattle Seahawks | 61.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 46.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.2, 24.1] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Kenneth Walker III / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -115 / 68% / Walker’s 5.2 YPC average against 49ers’ weakened run defense (missing Bosa and Williams) hits over in 7 of last 10 games, with increased usage due to Seattle’s run-heavy scheme.
Player Prop #2: DK Metcalf / Over Receiving Yards / 72.5 / -110 / 65% / Metcalf exceeds this in 8 of 11 head-to-heads vs. 49ers secondary depleted by injuries, averaging 92 yards per game this season on high-target volume.
Player Prop #3: Jauan Jennings / Under Receiving Yards / 45.5 / -105 / 70% / With Kittle, Aiyuk, and Samuel sidelined or limited, Jennings’ targets drop in crowded backfield, underperforming in 6 of last 8 without full WR corps.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Seahawks, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow strategy optimal as metrics confirm Seattle’s edge from superior EPA and 49ers’ injury-riddled offense. The game projects as moderately low-scoring, with defenses dominating due to San Francisco’s 15% efficiency drop from absences like Warner and Bosa. Overall, contextual factors like home advantage and clean bill of health for Seattle support fading any 49ers hype.
🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Seahawks / No clear edge] — whichever has the best mathematical probability of winning.
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