Winnipeg Jets vs New York Islanders

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-13 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 10:31 AM EST

Winnipeg Jets vs New York Islanders on 2026-01-13

💰 Best Bet #1 [Winnipeg Jets / Spread / -1.5 at +140 / 58% / Jets’ home-ice edge and recent defensive form against a travel-weary Islanders squad create value on the puck line, with line movement supporting the favorite despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams’ low xGA rates and strong penalty kills suggest a tight, low-scoring affair, flipping the data-driven over lean for historical underperformance in predictions.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Winnipeg Jets / Moneyline / -136 / 55% / Winnipeg’s superior home record and goaltending matchup provide a mathematical edge over the Islanders’ road struggles.]

Game Times
ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[62% / 38%]

💰 Money Distribution
[58% / 42%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Jets -130 and ticked to -136 with balanced action, no significant RLM indicating sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Jets puck line / Public alignment with money suggests consensus value, bolstered by Jets’ 71% home ATS in recent games; totals show mild under edge post-flip.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Winnipeg Jets | 54% |
| Win % for New York Islanders | 46% |
| Spread Cover % for Winnipeg Jets | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, +2.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Mark Scheifele / Over Points / 0.5 at -120 / 65% / Scheifele’s high usage rate (22% on Jets) and strong xGF contribution against Islanders’ middling PK make over likely in a projected even matchup.
Player Prop #2: Ilya Sorokin / Under Saves / 27.5 at -110 / 60% / Sorokin’s .915 SV% faces Jets’ low shot volume (28.4/game), with defensive metrics favoring fewer opportunities for the under.
Player Prop #3: Kyle Connor / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at +105 / 58% / Connor’s 3.8 SOG average exploits Islanders’ high-danger vulnerabilities, supported by recent form and power-play deployment.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward the Jets with aligned money percentages, creating no strong fade opportunity as metrics confirm home value without sharp divergence. Follow the public on Winnipeg given their defensive efficiency and rest advantage. Overall scoring outlook points to under 5.5, driven by both teams’ sub-league-average xGA and conservative styles.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Jets] — Mathematical probabilities favor the home favorite in a controlled, low-event game.

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