Duquesne vs Dayton

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-13 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 11:08 AM EST

Duquesne vs Dayton on 2026-01-13

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dayton / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 58% / Dayton’s superior efficiency ratings and recent form against similar opponents suggest strong coverage, bolstered by home-court dynamics despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 150.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ pace and defensive lapses in current season matchups point to a higher-scoring affair, with averages exceeding the line in comparable games.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Dayton / Moneyline / -650 / 70% / Dayton’s win probability edges out due to roster depth and historical dominance in the series, offering value despite heavy favoritism.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Duquesne | 28.4% |
| Win % for Dayton | 70.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Duquesne | 41.7% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.8% / Under: 48.2% |
| Average Total Points | 149.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.3, 21.8] |

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[35% Duquesne / 65% Dayton]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% Duquesne / 55% Dayton]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Dayton -7.5 and moved to -8.5 with balanced action, indicating steady sharp support for the favorite without significant public pushback.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Dayton spread; simulation probabilities exceed implied odds, supported by Dayton’s adjusted efficiency edge in current season data.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Dayton, aligning with money distribution and sharp indicators from line stability, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Contextual factors like limited injury disruptions favor Dayton’s offensive output. Overall game scoring outlook projects moderately high totals, driven by both teams’ tempo and rebounding vulnerabilities in recent outings.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Dayton / No clear edge] — mathematical probability favors the favorite’s outright and spread coverage.

Highlights unavailable.