Michigan State vs Indiana

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-13 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 11:11 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Michigan State / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Michigan State holds a strong home advantage in Big Ten play, with superior adjusted efficiency ratings and recent form supporting a cover against an Indiana team struggling on the road.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit moderate tempos and defensive rebounding weaknesses, leading to expected possessions that push toward a higher-scoring affair based on current season averages.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Michigan State / Moneyline / -160 / 65% / Simulation and metrics favor Michigan State decisively, with home-court edge and matchup edges in efficiency providing clear value on the favorite.]

Michigan State vs Indiana on 2026-01-13

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

Public Bets

[Michigan State 70% / Indiana 30%]

💸 Public Bets

[Michigan State 70% / Indiana 30%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Michigan State 75% / Indiana 25%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Opened at -3, moved to -3.5 with balanced action, indicating stability despite public lean toward home team]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Michigan State spread — Positive EV derived from simulation cover probability exceeding implied odds, supported by home efficiency and Indiana’s road ATS trends in current season]

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Michigan State, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Both teams’ offensive ratings suggest a game leaning slightly over the total, though defensive adjustments could keep it competitive. Overall scoring outlook points to a mid-range total around 150 points, with Michigan State’s edge in rebounding and turnover creation driving the outcome.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Michigan State — Mathematical probability supports the home favorite based on efficiency metrics and simulation convergence.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Michigan State | 65.0% |
| Win % for Indiana | 35.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Michigan State | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 150.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.5, 15.2] |

Highlights unavailable.