Fresno State vs Colorado State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-13 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 11:17 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Fresno State / +5.5 / -110 / 52% / Simulation indicates a tight margin with Colorado State’s key players questionable, providing value on the home underdog cover despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 140.5 / -110 / 52% / Both teams show defensive strengths in recent games, with Fresno allowing 72 PPG and Colorado State at 68 PPG allowed, trending toward a lower-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Colorado State / Moneyline / -260 / 65% / Superior 11-5 record and offensive efficiency give the Rams the edge, though injuries temper the favoritism.

Fresno State vs Colorado State on 2026-01-13

Game Times

ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Colorado State 70% / Fresno State 30%

💰 Money Distribution
Colorado State 55% / Fresno State 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Colorado State -4.5; moved to -5.5 with public action on the favorite, no significant sharp resistance noted.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Fresno State +5.5; injuries to Colorado State’s Jorgensen and Kiudulas create value against the line, supported by simulation outcomes.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Fresno State | 35% |
| Win % for Colorado State | 65% |
| Spread Cover % for Fresno State (+5.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Colorado State, aligning with money distribution, but sharp indicators are mixed due to reverse line movement hints from injury news. Following the public on the moneyline makes sense mathematically given the Rams’ form, though fading on the spread offers edge with Fresno’s home advantage. Overall game scoring outlook points to under, as both defenses rank solidly in points allowed and recent matchups have trended low.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Fresno State +5.5 — simulation and injury context support the cover probability over the implied odds.

Highlights unavailable.