Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-14 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-14 06:15 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dallas Mavericks / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Dallas shows strong home defense against depleted Nuggets lineup, covering in 52% of simulations with key players available]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 225.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams’ recent games trend low-scoring due to injuries and slower pace, with average total at 224 in sims]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Denver Nuggets / Moneyline / +100 / 58% / Nuggets edge in win probability at 55% despite injuries, value as underdog with Murray potentially returning]

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets on 2026-01-14

Game Times

ET: 9:30 PM
CT: 8:30 PM
MT: 7:30 PM
PT: 6:30 PM
AKT: 5:30 PM
HST: 3:30 PM

Public Bets

[Dallas 62% / Denver 38%]

Money Distribution

[Dallas 58% / Denver 42%]

Market Alignment

[Aligned]

Line Movement

Line opened at Dallas -1.5 and moved to -2.5 with balanced action, no significant RLM despite public lean toward home team.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Nuggets ML / Simulations indicate 55% win probability vs. implied 50% odds, supported by Denver’s resilience in back-to-backs without Jokic this season.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dallas Mavericks | 45.0% |
| Win % for Denver Nuggets | 55.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Mavericks | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 224.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 10.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Luka Doncic / Over 28.5 Points / -110 / 75% / Doncic’s usage rate exceeds 35% in home games, averaging 32 PPG vs. Nuggets defenses without Jokic, with Dallas offense reliant on his scoring efficiency (TS% 62%).
Player Prop #2: Kyrie Irving / Over 20.5 Points / -105 / 70% / Irving steps up in high-usage spots, hitting over in 8 of last 10 without restrictions, exploiting Denver’s weakened perimeter defense allowing 25+ PPG to guards.
Player Prop #3: Aaron Gordon / Over 12.5 Points / -110 / 65% / Gordon probable and averaging 14.2 PPG in Jokic-out games, with increased touches and Denver’s adjusted offense favoring his mid-range efficiency (48% FG rate).

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Dallas as home favorite, aligning with money distribution and stable line movement, but simulations reveal value in fading slightly due to Denver’s 55% win edge from injury-adjusted metrics. Sharp action appears balanced, with no clear RLM, supporting a follow on the model’s contrarian lean toward Nuggets without forcing a full fade. Overall scoring outlook points to a lower-total game, as both defenses improve without key offensive stars, trending under the line in similar matchups this season.

Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Dallas / Denver Nuggets ML] — Mathematical probability favors Denver at 55% win rate despite public backing.

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