Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-14 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-14 11:10 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Pittsburgh / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 62% / Pittsburgh holds superior adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies per current KenPom ratings, while Georgia Tech’s recent home struggles and key absences tilt the edge.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 55% / Both squads exhibit low-tempo play styles with strong defensive rebounding rates, leading to projected totals below the line based on season averages of 138 combined points in similar matchups.

💰 Best Bet #3 Pittsburgh / Moneyline / -240 / 65% / Pittsburgh’s road win rate exceeds 60% this season against comparable opponents, bolstered by consistent scoring from starters.

Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh on 2026-01-14

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Pittsburgh 65% / Georgia Tech 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Pittsburgh 75% / Georgia Tech 25%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Pittsburgh -4.5, moved to -5.5 on sharp action despite public favoritism toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Pittsburgh spread due to reverse line movement indicating professional support, combined with efficiency metrics showing a 7-point true spread value.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Georgia Tech | 35% |
| Win % for Pittsburgh | 65% |
| Spread Cover % for Georgia Tech (+5.5) | 45% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 22] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jaland Lowe (Pittsburgh) / Over Points / 16.5 at -115 / 70% / Lowe averages 18.2 PPG in conference play with high usage rate against GT’s weak perimeter defense allowing 12.5 opponent 3s per game.
Player Prop #2: Baye Ndongo (Georgia Tech) / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 68% / Ndongo faces Pittsburgh’s elite rebounding unit (top-20 nationally), projecting under in 7 of last 10 road games.
Player Prop #3: Ishmael Sanders (Pittsburgh) / Over Assists / 3.5 at -120 / 65% / Sanders dishes 4.1 APG with GT’s turnover-prone guards (18% TO rate), exploiting transition opportunities in fast breaks.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Pittsburgh, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by line movement and money distribution, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Both teams prioritize defense, with Pittsburgh’s havoc rate and Georgia Tech’s slow pace suggesting a controlled, lower-scoring affair under the total. Contextual factors like no major injuries and Pittsburgh’s rest advantage further support the favorite without overvaluation from hype.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Pittsburgh — mathematical projections and market consensus point to a strong probability of a Pittsburgh victory and cover.

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