Pepperdine vs Portland

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-14 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-14 11:30 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Portland / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Portland’s home advantage and stronger defensive efficiency (AdjD 110) give them an edge to cover against Pepperdine’s average offense, supported by recent form showing 3-2 ATS in last 5 home games.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams play at a slower tempo (Portland 68, Pepperdine 70 possessions), with defensive metrics suggesting a low-scoring affair, averaging 135 combined points in similar matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Portland / Moneyline / -140 / 55% / Portland’s overall efficiency and home-field boost (win rate 60% at home) outweigh Pepperdine’s road struggles, with positive EV from line stability.]

Portland vs Pepperdine on 2026-01-14

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Pepperdine 65% / Portland 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Pepperdine 55% / Portland 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Portland -3 but moved to -2.5 despite heavy public action on the underdog Pepperdine, indicating potential sharp money on Portland.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% EV on Portland spread; reverse line movement against public percentage suggests professional backing, aligned with Portland’s home efficiency metrics from current 2026 season data.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Portland | 55% |
| Win % for Pepperdine | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Portland | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 138 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 15] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the road underdog Pepperdine, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement point to sharp action on Portland, making a fade optimal based on mathematical edges. Both teams’ defensive efficiencies and slower tempos indicate a lower-scoring game, with totals trending under in 70% of Portland’s home contests this season. Overall, Portland holds value across spread and moneyline despite the public’s lean.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pepperdine — Portland’s home metrics and line movement provide the highest probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.