NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-15 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-15 10:09 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Philadelphia Flyers / Spread / +1.5 at -180 / 55% / Flyers’ strong defensive metrics and Penguins’ injury concerns limit blowout potential, with sim showing only 45% chance Penguins cover -1.5]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 52% / Matchup data indicates moderate scoring pace, but historical trends and sim (flipped) favor pushing past the line despite average total of 5.8]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Pittsburgh Penguins / Moneyline / -140 / 52% / Penguins hold slight edge at home with better xGF, though Flyers’ recent form keeps it close per sim win probability]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Pittsburgh Penguins | 52% |
| Win % for Philadelphia Flyers | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 | 45% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

🏒 Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers on 2026-01-15

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Pittsburgh Penguins 60% / Philadelphia Flyers 40%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Pittsburgh Penguins 55% / Philadelphia Flyers 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line stable at Penguins -1.5 (-150 to -145), total steady at 6.0 despite minor public lean toward home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Flyers +1.5; sim and injury impacts create value against public favoritism for Penguins ML.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Sidney Crosby / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -120 / 65% / Crosby averages 3.8 SOG recently against weak Flyers PK, with high usage in home games supporting the over.
Player Prop #2: Travis Konecny / Over Points / 0.5 at +150 / 58% / Konecny’s speed exploits Penguins’ depleted defense post-injury, hitting in 60% of recent matchups with PP time.
Player Prop #3: Tristan Jarry / Under Saves / 25.5 at -110 / 62% / Jarry faces Flyers’ low-shot volume (28 avg), sim projecting under based on Flyers’ 2.8 xGA per game.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans Penguins due to home advantage and star power, aligning with money distribution, but sharp indicators and sim data suggest value in fading slightly on the spread without full contrarian push. Injuries to Penguins’ Rakell and Jarry weaken their offense, tilting toward a closer game. Overall scoring outlook points to under 6 goals based on defensive metrics, though flipped sim recommends over for EV.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Pittsburgh Penguins] — Flyers +1.5 offers the best mathematical probability with injury-driven edges.

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