Detroit Red Wings vs San Jose Sharks

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-16 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-16 09:56 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Detroit Red Wings / Puck Line / +1.5 at -220 / 72% Confidence
Home underdogs like the Red Wings cover the +1.5 in simulations 70%+ of the time, bolstered by strong defensive metrics at home and San Jose’s road regression despite their streak.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 55% Confidence
Offensive efficiencies suggest a slight lean over, but historical NHL trends flip this to under value, with both teams’ recent games averaging under 6 goals amid key defensive adjustments and potential fatigue.

💰 Best Bet #3 San Jose Sharks / Moneyline / -150 / 50% Confidence
Sharks’ four-game road win streak and superior xGF metrics give them the edge as favorites, with line stability confirming value against a middling Red Wings home record.

San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings on 2026-01-16

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

San Jose Sharks 58% / Detroit Red Wings 42%

💰 Money Distribution

San Jose Sharks 62% / Detroit Red Wings 38%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Puck line opened at Sharks -1.5 (+185) and ticked to +190, with moneyline steady at -145 to -150 despite moderate public action on the favorite—no significant RLM observed.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Detroit +1.5, driven by sim cover rate exceeding implied odds probability and home-ice defensive boost; totals show mild under value post-flip adjustment.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Red Wings | 45.2% |
| Win % for San Jose Sharks | 49.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Red Wings | 70.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.3% / Under: 47.7% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3.0, 2.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Dylan Larkin / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -120 / 75% Confidence
Larkin’s high usage rate (3.2 SOG per game in current season) and favorable matchup against San Jose’s middling high-danger defense support the over, with 70% hit rate in last 10 home games.

Player Prop #2: Tomas Hertl / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at +110 / 68% Confidence
Hertl’s scoring pace (0.8 points per game) thrives on the road streak, exploiting Detroit’s PK vulnerabilities (78% efficiency), with over hitting in 65% of recent outings.

Player Prop #3: Moritz Seider / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at +130 / 62% Confidence
Seider’s defensive role yields points in 60% of home games via assists, boosted by power-play time against San Jose’s aggressive forecheck and Red Wings’ offensive rebounding edge.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans Sharks with aligned sharp money on the favorite, making a follow optimal rather than a forced fade, as RLM is absent and EV supports the underdog cover without contrarian push. Both teams’ defensive metrics (Corsi around 50-52%) point to a low-scoring affair under 6 goals, tempered by San Jose’s recent xGA regression. Overall, the matchup favors close play with limited explosive potential due to travel and rest factors.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with San Jose Sharks — their streak and metrics align with the math for a narrow road win probability.

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