Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-17 05:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-17 02:24 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Dallas Mavericks / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 65% / Dallas holds a strong home edge with Utah hampered by key absences like Markkanen and Kessler, aligning with simulation cover probability and recent defensive efficiency.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 235.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show below-average pace in recent matchups, with injuries limiting Utah’s offense and Dallas’s defense clamping down, supporting a slight lean under the total.
💰 Best Bet #3 Dallas Mavericks / Moneyline / -150 / 65% / Home win probability boosted by Utah’s depleted frontcourt and Dallas’s superior net rating, offering value against the implied odds.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz on 2026-01-17

Game Times
ET: 5:00 PM
CT: 4:00 PM
MT: 3:00 PM
PT: 2:00 PM
AKT: 1:00 PM
HST: 11:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[60% Dallas / 40% Utah]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% Dallas / 45% Utah]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Dallas -3.5 and steadied at -2.5 amid balanced action, with no significant reverse movement despite public lean toward the home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Dallas spread] — Positive EV stems from Utah’s injury-depleted lineup reducing their scoring potential, combined with Dallas’s home efficiency rating exceeding the implied probability.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dallas Mavericks | 65.00% |
| Win % for Utah Jazz | 35.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Mavericks | 65.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.00% / Under: 52.00% |
| Average Total Points | 235.00 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.00, 10.00] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Dallas with aligned money distribution, supporting a follow rather than a fade, as sharp action appears to concur without reverse line movement. Utah’s multiple key injuries, including Markkanen and Kessler, weaken their interior defense and scoring, tilting the matchup in Dallas’s favor. Overall game scoring projects as moderately low, with both teams’ recent trends and defensive metrics pointing to a total under 235.5 amid reduced offensive firepower.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Dallas Mavericks — mathematical probability favors the home team covering and winning outright.

Highlights unavailable.