NFL
Seattle Seahawks vs 
San Francisco 49ers
League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-17 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-17 05:56 PM EST
🏈 Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers on 2026-01-17
💰 Best Bet #1 Seahawks / Spread / -7 at -110 / 55% / Seahawks leverage home-field advantage at Lumen Field with strong recent form (13-3 record) and defensive metrics holding opponents under 20 points in key wins, covering in 52.3% of simulations despite 49ers’ road resilience.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show solid defensive EPA per play in the current season, with Seahawks allowing 18.2 points per game at home and 49ers’ secondary limiting big plays; recent trends and weather forecast favor a controlled, low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 Seahawks / Moneyline / -295 / 65% / Simulations project 65.2% win probability for Seattle, backed by superior success rate on third downs and turnover margin against a 49ers offense hampered by injuries to key skill players.
Game Times
ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM
💸 Public Bets
Seahawks 72% / 49ers 28%
💰 Money Distribution
Seahawks 55% / 49ers 45%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Opened at Seahawks -7.5 but ticked to -7 amid sharp money on San Francisco, despite heavy public action on the home favorite; total steady at 44.5 with minimal movement.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Seahawks spread, driven by reverse line movement indicating professional respect for Seattle’s home dominance and 49ers’ injury-impacted road ATS (6-6).
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Kenneth Walker III / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 at -110 / 70% / Walker’s 5.2 yards per carry average in the current season surges against 49ers’ run defense allowing 4.8 YPC on the road; offensive line edges support 20+ touches in a run-heavy script.
Player Prop #2: George Kittle / Over Receiving Yards / 50.5 at -110 / 65% / Kittle’s 68% target share in high-usage games exploits Seahawks’ middle-field vulnerabilities (allowing 6.2 rec YPC to TEs); matchup favors 7+ catches in passing scenarios.
Player Prop #3: Sam Darnold / Under Passing Yards / 245.5 at -110 / 62% / Darnold’s efficiency dips under pressure (CPOE -2.1 vs elite fronts), facing 49ers’ league-leading sack rate; defensive havoc limits to sub-240 yards in 70% of similar spots.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Seattle Seahawks | 65.2% |
| Win % for San Francisco 49ers | 34.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Seattle Seahawks | 52.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.5% / Under: 51.5% |
| Average Total Points | 46.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.2, 22.1] |
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Seahawks, aligning partially with sharp money on the spread but divergent on the total where pros lean under due to defensive metrics. Following the public on Seattle makes sense mathematically, as EV supports the home side without forcing a fade, though contrarian under play edges out on low-scoring projections from both teams’ red-zone efficiency (Seahawks 55%, 49ers 52%). Overall game outlook points to a defensive battle under 44.5, with Seattle controlling tempo via ground game against a 49ers unit vulnerable without full health.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Seahawks — simulations and market consensus confirm the highest probability edge on the home favorite in this divisional clash.
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