Tampa Bay Lightning vs San Jose Sharks

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-20 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-20 10:31 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Tampa Bay Lightning / Puck Line / -1.5 at -120 / 58% / Lightning’s strong home record and superior xGF advantage against a struggling Sharks defense support covering the puck line, with recent form showing 7-3 in last 10 home games.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams’ defensive metrics and low-scoring recent trends (Lightning allowing 2.4 GA/game, Sharks 3.2) point to a tight game, flipped from model over lean due to historical underperformance in predictions.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Tampa Bay Lightning / Moneyline / -200 / 65% / Lightning’s elite power play and home-ice edge overpower the Sharks’ poor road record (4-12-2 away), with sharp money aligning on the favorite.]

Tampa Bay Lightning vs San Jose Sharks on 2026-01-20

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Tampa Bay 68% / San Jose 32%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Tampa Bay 72% / San Jose 28%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Tampa Bay -1.5 (-110) and moved to -120 with heavy public action on the favorite, no significant RLM indicating sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4% on Tampa Bay puck line / Consensus from public/money alignment and Lightning’s 62% win probability vs. implied 55% supports positive EV, adjusted for Sharks’ road fatigue.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tampa Bay Lightning | 65% |
| Win % for San Jose Sharks | 35% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nikita Kucherov / Over Points / 1.5 at +150 / 72% / Kucherov’s 1.2 points per game average and 68% high-danger scoring rate exploit Sharks’ weak PK (78% efficiency), with confirmed active status.
Player Prop #2: Andrei Vasilevskiy / Under Goals Allowed / 2.5 at -130 / 68% / Vasilevskiy’s .925 SV% in home starts and Sharks’ low xGF (2.1 per 60) support under, no injury concerns.
Player Prop #3: William Eklund / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -110 / 65% / Eklund’s 2.8 SOG average vs. right-hand defenses like Lightning’s, active and high usage confirmed.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Lightning, aligning with sharp money and mathematical edges from superior metrics like Corsi (52% for Tampa Bay vs. 46% for San Jose). Following the public is optimal here, as no contrarian signals like RLM emerge, and contextual factors including Lightning’s rest advantage reinforce the favorite. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with both teams’ defensive efficiencies (Lightning top-5 GA, Sharks bottom-10 but improving) suggesting under 6.5 goals.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Tampa Bay Lightning] — highest probability backed by home dominance and matchup data.

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