Michigan vs Indiana

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-20 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-20 11:17 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Michigan / Spread / -16 at -105 / 68% / Michigan’s dominant home form and Indiana’s road struggles create a strong edge, with simulation showing consistent covers despite public lean on underdog.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams exhibit defensive efficiency in recent matchups, with Michigan’s pace control and Indiana’s turnover issues favoring a lower-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Michigan / Moneyline / -2000 / 92% / Overwhelming simulation win probability aligns with Michigan’s superior adjusted efficiency ratings and home advantage.]

Michigan vs Indiana on 2026-01-20

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[40% / 60%]

💰 Money Distribution

[70% / 30%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -15 for Michigan and moved to -16 on sharp action, indicating professional money despite public favoritism toward Indiana.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4% on Michigan spread; reverse line movement and simulation cover rate exceed implied odds probability, supported by current season defensive metrics.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Michigan | 92.5% |
| Win % for Indiana | 7.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Michigan (-16) | 68.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 138.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [12.4, 32.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the underdog Indiana, but sharp money and reverse line movement point toward Michigan, creating a fade opportunity backed by mathematical edges. Michigan’s defensive rebounding and Indiana’s poor away efficiency suggest following the pros here. Overall game outlook leans toward moderate scoring, with unders holding value due to both teams’ controlled tempos and foul-prone defenses.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Michigan] — simulation and market indicators confirm the highest probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.