Colorado State vs Air Force

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-20 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-20 11:27 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Colorado State / Spread / -14.5 at -110 / 58% / Colorado State dominates at home with superior efficiency ratings and recent form, covering in 7 of last 10 against MWC foes; sim supports 56.3% cover rate amid Air Force’s turnover issues.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 132.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank low in tempo and offensive rebounding per KenPom data, with Air Force allowing few second-chance points; average sim total of 131.8 points favors the under slightly.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Colorado State / Moneyline / -900 at -110 / 85% / Overwhelming win probability from sim (85.2%) aligns with home advantage and Air Force’s poor road record in current season.]

Colorado State vs Air Force on 2026-01-20

Game Times

ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[82% / 18%]

💰 Money Distribution

[94% / 6%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -13.5 and moved to -14.5 with heavy action on the favorite, indicating sharp support for Colorado State despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Colorado State spread; sim win probability exceeds implied odds by 4%, bolstered by Air Force’s defensive inefficiencies against high-efficiency offenses like CSU’s.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Colorado State | 85.2% |
| Win % for Air Force | 14.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Colorado State | 56.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.7% / Under: 51.3% |
| Average Total Points | 131.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8.1, 32.4] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Colorado State, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement toward the favorite, making following the Rams the optimal play with strong mathematical backing from efficiency metrics and simulation outcomes. Air Force’s struggles on the road in the current season further diminish upset potential. Overall game scoring projects as moderately low, with both defenses limiting explosive plays and turnovers capping possessions.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Colorado State / No clear edge] — the convergence of public action, sharp indicators, and sim data points to the highest probability on the home favorite.

Highlights unavailable.