La Salle vs Dayton

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-21 06:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-21 11:13 AM EST

La Salle vs Dayton on 2026-01-21

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dayton / Spread / -16.5 at -110 / 58% / Dayton’s dominant recent form and home advantage overpower La Salle’s struggles, with simulation showing strong cover probability despite minor injury concerns.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 135.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ pace and defensive lapses in recent matchups suggest a slight lean to the over, backed by average total simulation at 148.2 points.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Dayton / Moneyline / -650 / 90% / Overwhelming win probability from metrics and historical edges against weaker A-10 foes.]

Game Times

ET: 6:30 PM
CT: 5:30 PM
MT: 4:30 PM
PT: 3:30 PM
AKT: 2:30 PM
HST: 12:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[75% Dayton / 25% La Salle]

💰 Money Distribution
[65% Dayton / 35% La Salle]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Spread moved from -17.5 to -16.5, total steady at 135.5 despite public heavy on favorite]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Dayton spread; reverse line movement hints at sharp support amid public favoritism, with EV positive from simulation convergence]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for La Salle | 10% |
| Win % for Dayton | 90% |
| Spread Cover % for La Salle +16.5 | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 148.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [15.1, 34.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Dayton, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow-the-public approach optimal on the favorite. Contextual factors like Dayton’s home dominance and La Salle’s road woes reinforce the edge, with no strong contrarian signals. Overall game scoring outlook points to moderately high output, driven by Dayton’s efficient offense against La Salle’s porous defense.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Dayton] — highest mathematical probability from aligned metrics and simulation.

Highlights unavailable.