UC Santa Barbara vs Cal Poly

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-22 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-22 11:07 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 UC Santa Barbara / Spread / -6.5 at -115 / 65% / UC Santa Barbara’s superior adjusted efficiency ratings and home-court dominance in recent games provide a strong edge to cover against a struggling Cal Poly squad.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 72% / Defensive metrics for both teams, including Cal Poly’s low offensive output and UC Santa Barbara’s solid rebounding, point to a controlled, lower-scoring affair below the total.
💰 Best Bet #3 UC Santa Barbara / Moneyline / -280 / 81% / With a clear talent and form advantage, UC Santa Barbara emerges as the reliable favorite in this Big West matchup.

UC Santa Barbara vs Cal Poly on 2026-01-22

Game Times

ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

UC Santa Barbara 75% / Cal Poly 25%

💰 Money Distribution

UC Santa Barbara 65% / Cal Poly 35%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -7 and has ticked down to -6.5 amid balanced action, with no significant reverse line movement observed as of the latest updates.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4.2% on UC Santa Barbara -6.5, driven by convergence of efficiency metrics, home splits, and public/sharp alignment without overvaluation.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UC Santa Barbara | 81.0% |
| Win % for Cal Poly | 19.0% |
| Spread Cover % for UC Santa Barbara | 65.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 28.0% / Under: 72.0% |
| Average Total Points | 135.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [4.8, 25.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors UC Santa Barbara, aligning with sharp money indicators and mathematical projections based on current-season efficiency and form data. Following the favorite optimizes outcomes here, as contrarian value is absent. The game outlook leans toward moderate scoring, with UC Santa Barbara’s defense likely capping Cal Poly’s output.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with UC Santa Barbara — superior metrics and market consensus confirm the highest probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.