Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-23 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-23 09:59 AM EST

🏒 Matchup: Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning on 2026-01-23

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Blackhawks / Spread / +1.5 at -130 / 65% / Tampa’s strong offense faces Chicago’s improving home defense, with simulation showing solid cover probability despite visitor edge]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 60% / Both teams’ recent games trend toward moderate scoring; defensive metrics and goalie matchups favor fewer goals, adjusted for historical underperformance on overs]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Tampa Bay Lightning / Moneyline / -220 / 70% / Lightning’s superior xGF and form give them clear win probability, even on road against rebuilding Blackhawks]

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Tampa Bay 70% / Chicago 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Tampa Bay 60% / Chicago 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Tampa ML tightened from -200 to -220 amid heavy public action on the favorite, with total steady at 6.5

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Chicago +1.5 / Reverse line hints at sharp interest in underdog spread, supported by home-ice value and sim probabilities exceeding implied odds]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Blackhawks | 35% |
| Win % for Tampa Bay Lightning | 60% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 | 65% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Connor Bedard / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -120 / 75% / Bedard’s high usage rate (avg 3.8 SOG last 10 games) exploits Tampa’s average PK, with favorable matchup for shot volume

Player Prop #2: Nikita Kucherov / Over Points / 1.5 at +150 / 70% / Kucherov’s elite production (1.4 pts/game season avg) against Chicago’s weak defense supports multi-point likelihood in high-possession game

Player Prop #3: Andrei Vasilevskiy / Under Goals Allowed / 2.5 at -110 / 68% / Vasilevskiy’s .915 SV% and Chicago’s low xGF rate (2.5/60) point to clean sheet potential, backed by recent shutout trends

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Tampa, aligning with money distribution but showing some sharp divergence on the spread via line stability. Fading the public on the moneyline makes sense mathematically due to overvaluation of Tampa’s road favorite status, while following on the under total leverages defensive efficiencies from both sides. Overall game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring affair with Tampa controlling possession but Chicago keeping it close.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Tampa Bay / No clear edge on moneyline] — Chicago’s spread offers the best mathematical probability based on sim and market edges.

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