Montreal Canadiens vs Vegas Golden Knights

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-27 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-27 06:17 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Montreal Canadiens / +1.5 / -170 / 72%
Puck line favors home underdog coverage with strong sim cover rate amid Vegas’ inconsistent road finishes; recent form shows Montreal competitive in losses.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 58%
Simulation indicates low-scoring affair (avg 5.8 total), flipped per NHL historicals; both teams’ defensive metrics and preseason unders align despite average pace.

💰 Best Bet #3 Vegas Golden Knights / Moneyline / -135 / 55%
Away team edges win probability via superior xGA and goalie stability, positive EV vs public overreaction to home hype.

Montreal Canadiens vs Vegas Golden Knights on 2026-01-27

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Montreal 42% / Vegas 58%

💰 Money Distribution
Montreal 38% / Vegas 62%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at open; puck line Vegas -1.5 +140 steady despite moderate Vegas public support—no clear RLM.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on MTL +1.5 (model 76% vs implied 63%); limited data but positive from form convergence.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Montreal Canadiens | 46% |
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 50% |
| Spread Cover % for Montreal Canadiens +1.5 | 76% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.85 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3.2, 3.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans Vegas but aligns with sharp money indicators in high-volume market, supporting follow on away ML without strong fade justification. Math favors MTL puck line coverage given regression to defensive means and home resilience. Overall game projects modest scoring with under edge post-flip, driven by average xGF/xGA rates (MTL 2.9/3.0, VGK 2.9/2.8) and goalie stability.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Vegas Golden Knights — best mathematical probability via slight win prob edge and market consensus.

Highlights unavailable.