Akron vs Toledo

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-27 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-27 07:13 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Akron / -5.5 / -110 / 60%
Strong adjusted efficiency ratings and home-court edge support Akron covering, aligning with 58% simulation cover rate.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 151.5 / -108 / 55%
Recent defensive trends and matchup pace project totals below the line, matching simulation’s 52% Under probability and 150.2 average.

💰 Best Bet #3 Akron / Moneyline / -220 / 68%
Simulation win probability of 68% exceeds implied odds, bolstered by superior offensive rebounding and form.

🏀 Akron vs Toledo on 2026-01-27

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Akron 72% / Toledo 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Akron 58% / Toledo 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Akron -6.5, moved to -5.5 despite 72% public on Akron

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Akron | 68% |
| Win % for Toledo | 30% |
| Spread Cover % for Akron | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 150.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18.5, 24.2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Akron, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement indicate some sharp action on Toledo; however, simulation metrics and efficiency ratings confirm value on Akron side without needing a full fade. Defensive rebounding percentages and tempo adjustments point to a controlled, lower-scoring game under the total. Overall edge lies with following the model’s projection over public extremes.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Akron — simulation and EV align for highest win probability.

Highlights unavailable.