Dayton vs Rhode Island

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-27 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-27 07:28 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Dayton / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation cover probability of 55.2% exceeds implied breakeven, aligned public and money support with stable line confirming value.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 151.5 at -110 / 55% / Average simulated total of 151.0 with 51.9% under probability aligns with recent Dayton games averaging under this threshold amid defensive metrics.

💰 Best Bet #3 Dayton / Moneyline / -360 / 80% / 78.5% win probability significantly outperforms market-implied odds, backed by superior adjusted efficiency and form.

Dayton vs Rhode Island on 2026-01-27

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Dayton 72% / Rhode Island 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Dayton 68% / Rhode Island 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -6.5; no significant shifts reported amid limited volume.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Dayton spread; simulation probabilities exceed market-implied odds, supported by adjusted efficiency metrics.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dayton | 78.5% |
| Win % for Rhode Island | 20.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Dayton | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.1% / Under: 51.9% |
| Average Total Points | 151.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, 22.3] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns closely with sharp money distribution on Dayton, creating consensus without reverse line movement to fade. Mathematical models confirm positive EV on the favorite spread, with no contrarian signals present. Game scoring outlook leans slightly under total based on simulated average and recent Dayton trends showing controlled paces.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Dayton — highest mathematical probability supported by simulation dominance and market convergence.

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