San Jose State vs Boise State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-27 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-27 07:52 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Boise State / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 52% / Boise State’s stronger win probability and home-court metrics support covering the spread against San Jose State’s road struggles.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 143.5 at -110 / 52% / Defensive efficiencies and recent low-scoring trends for both teams favor a sub-143.5 total.

💰 Best Bet #3 Boise State / Moneyline / -140 / 58% / Simulation aligns with Boise’s edge in efficiency ratings and matchup form.

🏀 San Jose State vs Boise State on 2026-01-27

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
San Jose State 45% / Boise State 55%

💰 Money Distribution
San Jose State 40% / Boise State 60%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -5.5 for Boise State; minor early action on favorite despite limited volume.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Boise State side / Positive EV from sim convergence and defensive matchup data outweighing public lean.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Jose State | 40.2% |
| Win % for Boise State | 57.8% |
| Spread Cover % for San Jose State (+5.5) | 48.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.5% / Under: 51.5% |
| Average Total Points | 142.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 8.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and money distribution align on Boise State, matching simulation edges without clear RLM signals. Following the favorite optimizes EV given current season defensive metrics for both squads. Overall game projects low-to-mid scoring with under favored on pace and efficiency trends.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Boise State — simulation and market consensus confirm highest probability.

Highlights unavailable.