Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-31 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-31 07:55 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Detroit Red Wings / +1.5 / +1.5 at -135 / 65% / Simulation shows 73% cover rate for home dog puck line amid Colorado’s road regression in xGA and Detroit’s rest edge; line stable despite public fade.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 58% / Flipped per NHL model (raw sim favors Under at 52%, historical adjustment recommends Over); low preseason totals but pace metrics project 5.9 avg with variance.

💰 Best Bet #3 Colorado Avalanche / Moneyline / -155 / 62% / Model edges visitor ML at 52.5% true prob vs implied 60.8%, supported by superior xGF and recent form.

🏒 Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche on 2026-01-31

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Colorado 68% / Detroit 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Colorado 58% / Detroit 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Puck line opened Colorado -1.5 +125, moved to +120 with sharp money on Detroit +1.5; ML tightened from -150 to -155 against public action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Detroit +1.5 (sim cover 73% vs -135 implied 57%); contrarian value from RLM and Detroit home defense.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Red Wings | 47.5% |
| Win % for Colorado Avalanche | 52.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Red Wings +1.5 | 73.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47.8% / Under: 52.2% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 3.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Colorado aligns partially with money but diverges from sharp RLM toward Detroit puck line, creating fade opportunity justified by sim cover rates and Colorado’s away xGA inflation. Detroit’s recent low-scoring home games pair with Colorado’s variable output for a projected under tendency (flipped Over rec), but overall low total outlook from defensive metrics. Contrarian play optimal as EV converges on home dog value.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Colorado Avalanche — Detroit +1.5 holds superior mathematical probability.

Highlights unavailable.