Utah Mammoth vs Dallas Stars

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-31 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-31 08:15 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Utah Mammoth / Puck Line +1.5 at -185 / 72% / Utah’s recent games show resilience in close contests despite losses, simulation projects 72% cover rate against Dallas’ offense hampered by road fatigue

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total 5.5 at -110 / 58% / Flipped recommendation per historical NHL model performance; matchup features leaky defenses from recent trends (Utah allowing 4+ avg, Dallas variable)

💰 Best Bet #3 Dallas Stars / Moneyline -155 / 55% / Dallas superior recent scoring (3.67 GPG) vs Utah’s weak defense, home underdog value limited by form

🏒 Utah Mammoth vs Dallas Stars on 2026-01-31

Game Times
ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Utah Mammoth 35% / Dallas Stars 65%

💰 Money Distribution
Utah Mammoth 42% / Dallas Stars 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Dallas ML tightened from -140 to -155 with stable puck line at -1.5/+1.5 despite public lean

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Utah +1.5; sim convergence shows 72% cover exceeds implied 65% odds prob, supported by RLM absence and Utah home edge

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|—————————–|————————|
| Win % for Utah Mammoth | 32% |
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 51% |
| Spread Cover % for Utah Mammoth +1.5 | 72% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 56% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.0, 1.5] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money align on Dallas, but simulation and recent Utah home resilience (close losses) indicate value fading public slightly on puck line without strong RLM. Dallas edges ML on offensive metrics, though low-scoring projection flipped for total rec. Game outlook leans under total naturally (avg 5.3 goals) due to defensive regressions expected.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Utah Mammoth +1.5 — highest EV at 72% sim cover probability.

Highlights unavailable.