NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder vs 
Brooklyn Nets
League: NBA | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-20 05:29 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Oklahoma City Thunder / Spread / -17.5 at -112 / 58% / Simulation cover rate of 58% exceeds implied probability amid Thunder home dominance and Nets’ recent road struggles despite OKC injuries
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 214.5 at -110 / 64% / Avg simulated total 208 falls well below line, backed by under money split (61%), depleted rosters limiting pace and efficiency
💰 Best Bet #3 Oklahoma City Thunder / Moneyline / -1600 / 92% / 92% win probability from 10k sims aligns with heavy public/sharp consensus on dominant home win
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 92.0% |
| Win % for Brooklyn Nets | 8.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 36.0% / Under: 64.0% |
| Average Total Points | 208.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.0, 36.0] |
🏀 Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Brooklyn Nets
💸 Public Bets
[91% / 9%]
💰 Money Distribution
[96% / 4%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books (-17 to -17.5)
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Thunder spread (model cover 58% vs implied 52%); +5% under total (64% prob vs 52% implied); low EV ML due to heavy juice
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Thunder moneyline (91% bets, 96% money) in full alignment with sharp action, supporting a follow on ML while offering a contrarian fade opportunity on spread where public leans Nets (53% bets) despite model edge. Key Thunder absences (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams out) are offset by Nets’ inferior form and road woes, maintaining OKC’s projected dominance. Overall game projects low-scoring affair with simulated 208 total, driven by injuries curbing offensive output on both ends and recent trends averaging under the line.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Oklahoma City Thunder — model confirms highest probability on spread and ML edges.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.